Prediction market odds on US gasoline prices
Gasoline prices are the most visible economic indicator for American consumers — and prediction markets let traders bet on where they're headed. Kalshi offers structured gas price contracts that reveal the market's probability-weighted outlook for pump prices.
Prediction market odds on gas prices factor in crude oil prices, refinery capacity, seasonal demand, and geopolitical risks. Check the live markets below for the latest probabilities on various price thresholds.
Key factors include crude oil prices, refinery utilization, seasonal driving demand, pipeline infrastructure, and state/federal taxes. Geopolitical events (like Iran conflict) can cause rapid spikes.
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
