Prediction market odds on a surprise rate hike
While most expect the Fed to cut rates, prediction markets also price the tail risk of rate hikes. If inflation reaccelerates or the economy overheats, the Fed could surprise with a rate increase. Kalshi offers direct contracts on this scenario — providing a real-money gauge of hawk risk.
Prediction markets assign a probability to rate hikes at each FOMC meeting. Even when the base case is cuts or holds, the hike probability provides useful information about tail risk. Check the live markets below.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
