Live monthly odds on the AI leadership race — Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok
Polymarket runs a recurring monthly market on which company has the #1 AI model — Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, or xAI — based on style-controlled benchmarks. The market resolves at month-end and prices shift sharply when new models drop. Below are the live odds for the current and next monthly periods.
Polymarket's monthly markets typically resolve based on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style controls applied — a head-to-head ELO ranking from human preference voting that filters out formatting bias.
Sharply. A new SOTA model from any of the four major labs can move month-end odds 30+ points within hours of release as traders incorporate early benchmark scores and arena ratings.
Year-end markets are slower-moving and more diversified — they price the cumulative leadership race. Monthly markets are sharper and more reactive to single-model events.
Best AI at the end of 2026?
