Prediction market odds on AI model leadership
The AI race is the defining technology competition of the decade, and prediction markets are tracking which company will lead. Contracts cover individual model comparisons, benchmark results, and overall leadership assessments — turning the "best AI" debate into a tradeable outcome.
Prediction markets give OpenAI only a 14% chance of having the best AI by December. Claude leads at 97% today but drops to 48% by year-end. The full picture from Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket called every major AI release in April to the day — GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, DeepSeek V4. Then Anthropic revealed Claude Mythos, a model so capable they refuse to ship it. Now leaderboards can't rank it and traders can't price it — but they're trying.
Prediction markets offer contracts comparing models from OpenAI, Google (Gemini), Anthropic (Claude), Meta (Llama), and others. Check the live markets below for the latest consensus on AI model leadership.
Best AI at the end of 2026?
