Prediction market odds on artificial general intelligence
The question of when artificial general intelligence will arrive is arguably the most consequential technology forecast of our era. Prediction markets offer real-money contracts on AGI timeline milestones — from passing specific benchmarks to achieving human-level performance. These prices provide a crowdsourced estimate that aggregates the views of AI researchers, engineers, and informed traders.
Markets offer contracts on various AGI definitions and timelines. The probabilities vary significantly depending on how AGI is defined — some definitions are already close, others remain decades away. Check the live markets below.
Different contracts use different definitions: passing the Turing test, achieving human-level performance on benchmarks like ARC-AGI, or receiving recognition from major AI labs. The lack of a universal definition means you should read contract terms carefully.
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