What are the current odds for "Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 99.8% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $743.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 99.8% or No shares at 0.2%. The market has $307.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 weeks (Jul 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Updated 4 weeks ago

Following a June 14, 2026 US-Iran diplomatic announcement, this market asks whether Donald Trump will physically sign the agreement by hand before July 31, 2026. Markets currently price this at 100% Yes.

Current Probability

99.8%+0.92%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.00 return per $1

If No wins

$500.00 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump physically signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Physically signs” means that Donald Trump personally signs the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify.

The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.

If the United States and Iran complete the physical signing of the agreement (e.g., through a signing ceremony) and Trump does not physically sign the agreement, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Jun 16, 2026 · Resolves Jul 31, 2026