What are the current odds for "Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 96.7% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $109.9K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (Aug 15, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Updated 3 hr ago

The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Currently 96.7% on Polymarket, with $109,918 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

96.7%+0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.03 return per $1

If No wins

$30.30 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.

This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 16, 2026 · Resolves Aug 15, 2026