What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.90% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 48.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $6.0K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.90% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

Updated 3 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Currently 48.5% on Polymarket, with $6,000 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

48.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.06 return per $1

If No wins

$1.94 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.

This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

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Listed on Polymarket Feb 3, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026