What are the current odds for "Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? "?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 40.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $4.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? "?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 40.0% or No shares at 60.0%. The market has $2.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 40.0% on Polymarket, with $4,435 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

40.0%+0.12%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.50 return per $1

If No wins

$1.67 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.

The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.

Listed on Polymarket May 21, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026