What are the current odds for "Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 98.9% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $14.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 98.9% or No shares at 1.1%. The market has $22.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 11 months (Jun 30, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?

Updated 3 hr ago

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. Currently 98.9% on Polymarket, with $14,010 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

98.9%+0.05%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.01 return per $1

If No wins

$86.96 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

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Listed on Polymarket Jul 8, 2026 · Resolves Jun 30, 2027