What are the current odds for "Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 100.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $92.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 100.0% or No shares at 0.0%. The market has $463.7K in liquidity.

Polymarketother

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?

Updated 4 months ago

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Currently trading at 100.0% on Polymarket, with $92,916 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

100.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.00 return per $1

If No wins

$2000.00 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms Trending markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Price History