What are the current odds for "Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1520?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $3.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1520?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.1% or No shares at 100.0%. The market has $10.3K in liquidity.

Polymarketother

Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1520?

Updated 2 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Currently 0.1% on Polymarket, with $3,768 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

0.1%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2000.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release by Anthropic occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".

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