What are the current odds for "Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 79.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $158.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 79.5% or No shares at 20.5%. The market has $8.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketcrypto

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

Updated 18 hr ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 79.5% on Polymarket, with $158,604 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

79.5%-0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.26 return per $1

If No wins

$4.88 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.

For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

View full rules

Listed on Polymarket Apr 28, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026