What are the current odds for "Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 33.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $33.3K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Tomorrow (Jul 12, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?

Updated 2 min ago

On July 7, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 12, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2074548242386178258). Currently 33.0% on Polymarket, with $33,291 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

33.0%+0.06%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.03 return per $1

If No wins

$1.49 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces a qualifying extension of access to "Claude Fable 5" beyond July 12, 2026, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A qualifying extension requires Fable 5 to remain included in standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on at least one of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. An extension covering only the Enterprise plan does not qualify. The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as some portion of the included allowance can be spent on Fable without drawing from a usage-credit balance.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Listed on Polymarket Jul 8, 2026 · Resolves Jul 12, 2026