What are the current odds for "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 15.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $108.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 15.5% or No shares at 84.5%. The market has $16.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Updated 4 weeks ago

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. Currently 15.5% on Polymarket, with $107,997 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

15.5%-0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.45 return per $1

If No wins

$1.18 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Listed on Polymarket Apr 28, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026