What are the current odds for "Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 39.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $151.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 39.5% or No shares at 60.5%. The market has $26.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (Sep 6, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Updated 31 min ago

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. Currently 39.5% on Polymarket, with $150,996 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

39.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.53 return per $1

If No wins

$1.65 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

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Listed on Polymarket May 12, 2026 · Resolves Sep 6, 2026