What are the current odds for "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $139.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.0% or No shares at 95.0%. The market has $7.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

Updated 2 days ago

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Currently trading at 5.0% on Polymarket, with $139,222 in total trading volume, resolving 5 months.

Current Probability

5.0%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$20.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 30, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026