What are the current odds for "Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 16.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $10.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 16.5% or No shares at 83.5%. The market has $22.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?

Updated 43 min ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 16.5% on Polymarket, with $10,067 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

16.5%-0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.06 return per $1

If No wins

$1.20 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
Being formally booked or processed following detention
Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Jul 8, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026