What are the current odds for "US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 22.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $12.1K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

Updated 6 days ago

US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? Currently trading at 22.5% on Polymarket, with $12,118 in total trading volume, resolving 5 months.

Current Probability

22.5%-0.12%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.44 return per $1

If No wins

$1.29 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".

A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.

The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.

The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Jul 3, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026