Updated 3 days ago
Markets currently give a 7% chance that either the UAE or Qatar will formally announce a suspension of diplomatic relations by end of 2026. Such a rupture would mark a significant shift in Gulf cooperation, as the two nations have maintained relations despite regional tensions.
Current Probability
Price Changes
If Yes wins
$25.64 return per $1
If No wins
$1.04 return per $1
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Qatar formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Listed on Polymarket Apr 28, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026
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