What are the current odds for "Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 46.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $211.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 46.5% or No shares at 53.5%. The market has $63.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Updated 43 min ago

Tyler Robinson faces an Aggravated Murder charge in Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. This market resolves Yes if he is convicted of any criminal homicide offense by July 31, 2027, with markets currently assessing conviction odds at 42%.

Current Probability

46.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.15 return per $1

If No wins

$1.87 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.

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Listed on Polymarket Mar 26, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026

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