What are the current odds for "SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 7.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $10.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 7.5% or No shares at 92.5%. The market has $9.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Jan 1, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

Updated 3 weeks ago

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Currently 7.5% on Polymarket, with $10,936 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

7.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$13.33 return per $1

If No wins

$1.08 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).

View full rules

Listed on Polymarket Jun 9, 2026 · Resolves Jan 1, 2027