What are the current odds for "Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 15.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $18.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 15.0% or No shares at 85.0%. The market has $15.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Updated 4 weeks ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 15.0% on Polymarket, with $18,555 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

15.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.67 return per $1

If No wins

$1.18 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Takaichi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 15, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026