What are the current odds for "Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 31.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 31.5% or No shares at 68.5%. The market has $2.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

Updated 1 month ago

If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Currently 31.5% on Polymarket, with $1,646 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

31.5%-0.02%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.17 return per $1

If No wins

$1.46 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms More tech markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.

View full rules

Listed on Polymarket Apr 28, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026