Updated 1 hr ago
Pete Hegseth will cease to be U.S. Secretary of Defense at any point between now and December 31, 2026, either through resignation or removal. Markets currently give this outcome a 28% chance.
Current Probability
Price Changes
If Yes wins
$4.65 return per $1
If No wins
$1.27 return per $1
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Listed on Polymarket Mar 31, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2029?
Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2029
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2028?
Outcome: Before Jul 1, 2028
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2028?
Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2027?
Outcome: Before Oct 1, 2027
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