What are the current odds for "Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 14.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $39.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 14.0% or No shares at 86.0%. The market has $12.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?

Updated 6 days ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Currently 14.0% on Polymarket, with $39,088 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

14.0%-0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$7.14 return per $1

If No wins

$1.16 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.

A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.

Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Jun 9, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026