What are the current odds for "OPEC dissolves in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $29.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "OPEC dissolves in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.5% or No shares at 93.5%. The market has $12.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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OPEC dissolves in 2026?

Updated 4 weeks ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 6.5% on Polymarket, with $29,607 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

6.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$15.38 return per $1

If No wins

$1.07 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.

- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.

- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.

An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 28, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026