What are the current odds for "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 22.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $216.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 22.5% or No shares at 77.5%. The market has $37.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

Updated 4 days ago

This market tracks whether Nigel Farage will cease being Leader of Reform UK at any point through December 31, 2026. An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date triggers immediate resolution to Yes. Markets currently price this at 19%.

Current Probability

22.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.44 return per $1

If No wins

$1.29 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Listed on Polymarket Jun 24, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026