What are the current odds for "Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 9.3% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $197.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 9.3% or No shares at 90.8%. The market has $57.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Updated 4 min ago

This market resolves Yes if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be South Korea's president by December 31, 2026, whether through resignation, removal, or detention. Markets currently give this outcome a 10% probability.

Current Probability

9.3%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$10.81 return per $1

If No wins

$1.10 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lee Jae-myung's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 24, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026