What are the current odds for "Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $627.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.5% or No shares at 99.5%. The market has $31.6K in liquidity.

Polymarketeconomics

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Updated 4 weeks ago

This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair. It resolves Yes only if the upper bound of the target federal funds range decreases at that meeting, with traders currently pricing a 1% probability of a rate cut.

Current Probability

0.5%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$181.82 return per $1

If No wins

$1.01 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms More economics markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".

View full rules

Listed on Polymarket Apr 17, 2026