What are the current odds for "Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $52.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.0% or No shares at 94.0%. The market has $5.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

Updated 3 months ago

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. Currently 6.0% on Polymarket, with $52,149 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

6.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$16.67 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

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Listed on Polymarket Nov 26, 2025 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Price History