What are the current odds for "James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $154.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.5% or No shares at 95.5%. The market has $29.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

Updated 23 hr ago

This market resolves to Yes if former FBI Director James Comey is sentenced to prison for any criminal charges by December 31, 2026. Markets currently give this a 5% chance, based on the resolution criteria of actual jail/prison sentencing rather than charges or civil actions.

Current Probability

4.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.22 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”

If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 28, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026