What are the current odds for "Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 26.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.3K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 26.5% or No shares at 73.5%. The market has $9.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 months (Sep 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

Updated 4 weeks ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 26.5% on Polymarket, with $1,256 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

26.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.77 return per $1

If No wins

$1.36 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Jun 10, 2026 · Resolves Sep 30, 2026