What are the current odds for "Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?"?

As of September 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $782.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.1% or No shares at 100.0%. The market has $174.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Dec 9, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Updated 1 month ago

This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will raise its target federal funds rate between mid-December 2025 and the completion of a scheduled FOMC meeting. Markets currently give a rate hike during this window a 14% probability.

Current Probability

0.1%-0.22%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2000.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms More economics markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

View full rules

Listed on Polymarket Mar 31, 2026 · Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Price History

Market Stats

Open Interest$174.4K

24h Volume$59.6K

Total Volume$782.9K

Liquidity$174.4K

Ends3 months

ResolvesDec 9, 2026

Price Changes

24 hours-0.22%

7 days-0.22%

Trade Now

Trade 0.1% on Polymarket