What are the current odds for "Ebola pandemic in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $659.7K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Ebola pandemic in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.5% or No shares at 97.5%. The market has $157.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Updated 14 min ago

The market resolves Yes only if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes an Ebola outbreak as a "pandemic" in official public communications by year-end 2026. Currently priced at 8% probability, a PHEIC declaration alone would not qualify without the explicit "pandemic" designation.

Current Probability

2.5%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$39.22 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket May 15, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026