What are the current odds for "Christopher Luxon out by September 30?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 32.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Christopher Luxon out by September 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 32.0% or No shares at 68.0%. The market has $1.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 months (Sep 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Christopher Luxon out by September 30?

Updated 1 month ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Currently 32.0% on Polymarket, with $2,411 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

32.0%+0.02%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.13 return per $1

If No wins

$1.47 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 20, 2026 · Resolves Sep 30, 2026