What are the current odds for "Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $4.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.5% or No shares at 93.5%. The market has $3.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?

Updated 1 month ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 6.5% on Polymarket, with $4,469 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

6.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$15.38 return per $1

If No wins

$1.07 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.