What are the current odds for "António Guterres out by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 26.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "António Guterres out by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 26.0% or No shares at 74.0%. The market has $8.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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António Guterres out by December 31?

Updated 2 months ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Currently 26.0% on Polymarket, with $1,628 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

26.0%+0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.85 return per $1

If No wins

$1.35 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Apr 20, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026