Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
Updated 1h ago
If Yum! Brands Inc. reports [outcome] taco bell same-store sales growth in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 17, 2026
Kalshi's odds reflect the tail-end impact of Taco Bell's July cyclospora crisis: Above -3% at 35% and Above -2% at 21% dominate, pricing in a quarterly decline despite the chain entering Q3 "in its strongest position ever" with 8-9% sales momentum pre-outbreak. Management confirmed same-store sales were down 2% quarter-to-date by late July after the outbreak struck mid-month; recovery began only in early August and accelerated post-outbreak declaration on September 11. With roughly 2.5 weeks of recovery against 6+ weeks of damage, the market implies roughly -2% to -3% for the full quarter.
As of October 14, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3 are: Above -6%: 94%, Above -9%: 94%, Above -8%: 92%, Above -7%: 89%, Above -5%: 71%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3 is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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