Updated 1 week ago
If [outcome] is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winners: Bloom Energy, Reddit, Pure Storageon Sep 30, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-13
Reddit was added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026, becoming only the second pure-play social media company in the index. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the addition on August 13, with an effective date of August 18, replacing AvalonBay Communities. Markets had priced Reddit at just 21% the day before the market close, making it a clear underdog win among the candidates.
Before Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q3? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Bloom Energy: 98%, Reddit: 97%, Pure Storage: 81%, Affirm Holdings: 10%, Talen Energy: 6%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
