Tucker Carlson2028 Republican presidential nominee
Updated 1m ago
If Tom Cotton wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 1, 2026
Kalshi prices Vice President J.D. Vance as the commanding favorite for the 2028 Republican nomination at 43%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio far behind at 30%—a gap rooted in Vance's incumbency, proximity to Trump, and his stated MAGA-aligned positioning. While Trump has publicly mused about a Vance-Rubio unity ticket, he has declined to formally endorse either man, leaving room for late movement as the primary race approaches. Recent geopolitical tensions have buoyed Rubio's standing relative to Vance, who has faced criticism over foreign policy stances, but the structural advantage remains with the Vice President barring major scandal or political realignment.
As of July 13, 2026, the Kalshi odds for 2028 Republican presidential nominee are: J.D. Vance: 41%, Marco Rubio: 29%, Ron DeSantis: 4%, Donald J. Trump Jr.: 4%, Tucker Carlson: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
2028 Republican presidential nominee is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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