Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/3 - 8/9)
Updated 4 days ago
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 80 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Thresholds up through 30 resolved YES; 35 and above resolved NO — placing the final value in the 30–35 bandon Aug 11, 2026
Before Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/3 - 8/9) resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Above 15: 98%, Above 20: 93%, Above 25: 92%, Above 30: 88%, Above 35: 15%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has resolved on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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