Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/3 - 8/9)
Updated 4 days ago
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 250 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Thresholds up through 175 resolved YES; 200 and above resolved NO — placing the final value in the 175–200 bandon Aug 11, 2026
Before Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/3 - 8/9) resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Above 175: 99%, Above 150: 87%, Above 200: 22%, Above 250: 10%, Above 225: 8%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has resolved on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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