Updated 7h ago
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 9, 2026
Kalshi prices a 22% recession probability for 2027, down sharply from 41% earlier this year, as resilient economic data through Q2 2026 and near-term GDP growth have shifted trader expectations toward a soft landing. Most major forecasters including U.S. Bank and the Congressional Budget Office see steady 2% growth ahead with unemployment stable near 4%, though some economists warn that exhausted fiscal stimulus and peak AI spending could reverse the picture late in the year, leaving little room for policy error.
As of October 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Recession in 2027? are: Yes: 18%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Recession in 2027? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
