Gold price at year end?
Updated 9m ago
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 5500 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 6, 2026
Kalshi prices $4,500+ at 57% for year-end 2026 gold, reflecting a middle-ground view as major banks diverge sharply: J.P. Morgan forecasts $6,000, UBS conservatively targets $4,800, and LBMA survey respondents average $4,500. Current spot near $4,520 is supported by dovish Fed commentary from Governor Waller trimming September rate-hike odds, though geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation create upside risk. The market is pricing in Fed accommodation but below the more bullish institutional consensus.
As of September 7, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Gold price at year end? are: 4,300 or above: 70%, 4,400 or above: 61%, 4,500 or above: 56%, 4,600 or above: 50%, 4,700 or above: 49%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Gold price at year end? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
