Updated 1 month ago
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Aug 12, 2026 at 11am EDT is above 31589.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Thresholds up through 29760 resolved YES; 29770 and above resolved NO — placing the final value in the 29760–29770 bandon Aug 12, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-12
The Nasdaq-100 closed above 29,690 on August 12, 2026 at 11am EDT, reaching a record high of 30,700 on the day as AI stocks drove strong gains and inflation data came in slightly softer than expected. Markets had priced this outcome at 99%, confirming forecasts the index would break through the 29,690 threshold.
Before Nasdaq-100 price on Aug 12, 2026 at 11am EDT? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: 29,690 or above: 99%, 29,730 or above: 99%, 29,720 or above: 99%, 29,620 or above: 99%, 29,700 or above: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has resolved on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
