Updated 3 months ago
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 07, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is greater than 82°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: 74° or belowon Jul 8, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-07-07
The highest temperature in NYC on July 7, 2026 resolved to 74°F or below, as traders had projected. Cooler conditions following an early July heatwave kept temperatures well below normal, with forecasts and actual readings anchored in the low 70s range due to increased cloud cover and cooling maritime air from the Northeast.
Based on prediction market trading on Kalshi, the most likely outcomes are: 74° or below: 99%. These forecasts are derived from real-money trades — traders put their own money behind their weather predictions, which tends to produce well-calibrated probability estimates.
Prediction markets aggregate information from many participants who have financial incentives to be accurate. For weather events, markets incorporate data from weather models, local knowledge, and historical patterns. The price of each outcome reflects the crowd's real-money probability estimate.
PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of weather markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, covering temperature, rain, and snow forecasts for cities including New York, Chicago, Seattle, London, Shanghai, Seoul, and more.
