Updated 3 months ago
If the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles Airport, CA for July 10, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is greater than 81°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: 74° to 75°on Jul 11, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-07-11
The highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on July 10, 2026 was 75°F at Los Angeles International Airport, resolving to the 74-75°F bracket as the winning outcome. Coastal marine layer conditions and onshore flow kept temperatures in the mid-70s rather than the warmer inland values experienced elsewhere on the same day.
Based on prediction market trading on Kalshi, the most likely outcomes are: 74° to 75°: 99%. These forecasts are derived from real-money trades — traders put their own money behind their weather predictions, which tends to produce well-calibrated probability estimates.
Prediction markets aggregate information from many participants who have financial incentives to be accurate. For weather events, markets incorporate data from weather models, local knowledge, and historical patterns. The price of each outcome reflects the crowd's real-money probability estimate.
PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of weather markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, covering temperature, rain, and snow forecasts for cities including New York, Chicago, Seattle, London, Shanghai, Seoul, and more.
