Maintain current rateBank of Russia rate decision in September
Updated 4 weeks ago
If the Bank of Russia takes the action of [outcome] at September Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Maintain current rateon Sep 11, 2026
WinnerWhat happened
Resolved 2026-09-11
The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14% on September 11, 2026, marking the first pause in its cutting cycle since June 2025. The decision confirmed market expectations priced at 82% the day before, as elevated inflation at 6.3% and war-related fuel cost pressures from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries made further easing untenable despite political pressure from the Kremlin.
Before Bank of Russia rate decision in September resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Maintain current rate: 83%, Cut 50bps: 15%, Cut 25bps: 13%, Hike 50bps: 3%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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