Bank of Japan rate decision in September
Updated 3 weeks ago
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of [outcome] at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Hike 25bpson Sep 18, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-09-18
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, 2026, marking the highest level in about 31 years and the sixth rate hike since ending ultra-loose monetary policy in 2024. The move, confirming what markets had priced at 97% the day before, reflected persistent inflation approaching the BOJ's 2% target, driven by higher oil prices and a weaker yen.
Before Bank of Japan rate decision in September resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Hike 25bps: 99%, Maintain current rate: 5%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
